Market Pulse
How busy the swap market is, what it is trading, and what is priced for upcoming central bank meetings.
The Swap Rates table tells you the level. Market Pulse tells you the activity behind it: how much is trading, in which maturities, and which way deals are printing. It also shows what the market is pricing for each upcoming central bank meeting.
Open it from the strip at the top of any Swap Rates page, which shows the next central bank meeting when one is near and market activity otherwise, or go to app.bluegamma.io/market-pulse?ccy=<currency>.
At a Glance
The summary card gives the last 24 hours: trade count and notional, an activity badge saying whether that is normal for this currency, and where the currency ranks by traded volume.
Which way is the market leaning? puts two gauges side by side. Trades printing higher or lower is the share of trades printing above the previous comparable trade, so above 50% means deals keep getting done at higher rates. Insurance against rates rising is the share of short-expiry rate options protecting against a rise, so below 50% means flow leans toward rates falling.
Next [bank] meeting, for example Next BoE meeting, shows how many days away the decision is, the market-implied split across cut, hold and hike, and the implied move in basis points from the current policy rate. It appears for USD, EUR, GBP and JPY when the decision is within 40 days.
Market structure is six trailing-twelve-month figures describing how the market trades: trades per day, median ticket size, the largest print in the last 24 hours, the share done as blocks, the share cleared, and the busiest maturity bucket.
Central Bank Rate Path
Central bank rate path sits below the summary card and covers every upcoming meeting of the selected currency's central bank, not just the next one. It follows the currency picked at the top of the page.
Meeting
The decision date and how many days away it is. An asterisk marks a provisional date the central bank has not confirmed
Cut, Hold, Hike
The market-implied probability of each outcome. The most likely one is in bold
Implied
The move in basis points the market prices at that meeting
Expected rate
The market-implied policy rate after that meeting
Probabilities are cumulative against today's rate. A cut in a later row means the rate is below today's level by that meeting, whatever the path in between.
The table covers USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, CHF and NZD, and shows the same numbers as the API's central bank endpoints. For how they are built, see Central Bank Decision Probabilities. To pull them into your own systems, see Fetching Central Bank Probabilities.
Charts and the Trade Tape
How busy is the market? plots new trades per day, with a shaded band for the typical range, the middle 50% of days over the trailing few months. Spikes line up with CPI prints, central bank decisions and shocks.
Activity by maturity buckets the last 24 hours by maturity, switchable between trade count and notional.
Trades printing higher or lower? and Insurance against rates rising? plot the two gauges from the summary card through time, each against a 50% balanced line.
Latest reported trades is a live tape of the most recent clean prints: time, tenor, start, rate, size, venue, and whether the trade cleared. Filter to All or Bilateral.
The activity figures, charts and trade tape are built from trades publicly reported under US (CFTC) rules. That is comprehensive for USD, but for other currencies it captures only the US-facing share of the market, so onshore-only trading is not included. Read them as a description of observable activity, not a complete volume figure and not a forecast. The central bank sections are different: they are derived from each currency's OIS curve, not from reported trades.
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