UK Breakeven Inflation Rates: Swap & UKTI Break-Evens, 1Y to 30Y

Breakeven rates are the market's implied inflation, its traded inflation expectations: what zero-coupon inflation swaps lock, and what the gap between nominal gilt yields and the real yields on index-linked gilts (UKTI) implies. This page puts the two side by side, with the swap−UKTI gap, from 1 to 30 years. Start a free 14-day trial to unlock the numbers.

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UK breakeven inflation rates by tenor: the swap-implied breakeven, the index-linked gilt (UKTI) breakeven, and the gap between them, as of 09 Jul 2026. The breakeven rate is the average annual RPI inflation at which inflation-protected and nominal instruments return the same, also read as the UK's implied inflation curve. Rates are available live in the BlueGamma app.
TenorSwap breakeven09 Jul 2026UKTI breakeven09 Jul 2026Swap−UKTI gap09 Jul 2026
1Y breakeven rate
2Y breakeven rate
3Y breakeven rate
4Y breakeven rate
5Y breakeven rate
7Y breakeven rate
10Y breakeven rate
15Y breakeven rate
20Y breakeven rate
25Y breakeven rate
30Y breakeven rate

Swap break-evens from RPI swap market data; UKTI break-evens from end-of-day real yields and conventional gilt yields. How we source and build our rates.

Unlock both measures

Swap and UKTI break-evens, side by side

  • Swap vs UKTI break-evens by tenor
  • Every UKTI real yield, plus history
  • A market-consistent inflation assumption for your models
  • Excel Add-in & API access
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The breakeven inflation curve

A breakeven inflation curve charts the market's implied inflation, its inflation expectations, across time horizons. Each point is calculated by taking the difference between a nominal gilt's yield and the real yield on the index-linked gilt (UKTI) closest to it in maturity, or read directly from the zero-coupon inflation swap of that tenor. The shape carries the information: the short end moves with the current inflation cycle, while tenors spanning February 2030 price the alignment of RPI with CPIH, which is why the curve steps down before flattening at the long end.

Chart: UK breakeven inflation expectations by linker maturity, shape shown, values unlock with a trial

1Y10Y20Y30Y40Y

The UK breakeven curve in Excel & API

If you're copying this curve into a model every quarter-end, you don't need a table, you need a feed. The full zero-coupon curve, 1 to 50 years, as clean JSON or straight into your spreadsheet.

# API: the full UK breakeven zero-coupon curve
GET api.bluegamma.io/v1/inflation_curve
    ?index=UK RPI
x-api-key: your_api_key

# Returns zc_rate for every tenor, 1Y–50Y,
# with the discount index and curve date

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More UK Inflation Data

UK Index Linked Gilts

The bond side of every break-even: real yields, nominal comparators and break-evens for every UK linker.

View linker yields

UK Inflation Swap Rates

The derivatives side: GBP zero-coupon inflation swaps from 1 to 50 years.

View inflation swaps

Bank of England Rate Forecast

Where the market prices Bank Rate next, the policy path that drives short-end inflation pricing.

See the forecast

UK Gilt Yield Curve

Nominal gilt yields and zero-coupon curves: the other half of the gilt break-even.

View gilt yields

Zero Coupon Inflation Swaps

How the contract behind swap break-evens works, with a worked example.

See how they work

SONIA Swap Rates

The GBP nominal swap curve: the discounting benchmark behind these rates.

View SONIA rates