Bank of England Interest Rate Forecast
Market-implied probabilities for the next MPC meeting and the Bank Rate path ahead, derived from SONIA overnight index swaps and updated daily.
As of , overnight index swap pricing implies a 87% probability the Bank of England holds at the MPC meeting, with a market-implied move of +3 bp from the current Bank Rate of 3.75%.
| Date | Implied Bank Rate | Implied change vs today |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00% | +25 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.25% | +50 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.75% | +100 bps | |
| 4.75% | +100 bps | |
| 5.00% | +125 bps | |
| 5.25% | +150 bps | |
| 5.25% | +150 bps | |
| 5.25% | +150 bps |
Implied rates are derived from SONIA overnight index swap forwards. They reflect market pricing, not a BlueGamma view, and are refreshed daily.
Market-implied Bank Rate path
Beyond the next meeting
The full SONIA forward curve
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When Is the Next Bank of England MPC Meeting?
The next scheduled Bank of England rate decision is on . The market currently prices a move of +3 bp at that MPC meeting; the probabilities at the top of this page refresh daily as pricing moves.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
The forecasts on this page are market-implied, not opinion. Overnight index swaps referencing SONIA settle on the realised overnight rate, so the forward rates between two MPC meeting dates reveal where the market expects the Bank Rate to sit after each decision. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, and assuming the Bank of England moves in standard increments, gives the probability of a hike, hold or cut. The same curve construction powers the forward curves and swap pricing in the BlueGamma app.
One caveat worth knowing: market-implied paths can also carry risk premia, so in stressed periods the OIS curve can sit above where the market centrally expects the Bank Rate to go. Bank of England researchers showed exactly this after the outbreak of the war in Iran in early 2026, in Bank Rate expectations in the UK curve.
The next meeting is one point on the curve.
The probabilities above come from the same curve. The full SONIA forward curve shows the complete market-implied path for GBP rates, free to view and download.
See the SONIA forward curveDaily SONIA fixings in Excel & API
If you're rebuilding this table in a spreadsheet every month-end, you don't need a rate, you need a feed. One function, official fixings, straight into your accrual model.
// Excel: any day's SONIA fixing in a cell =BlueGamma.FIXING("SONIA", accrual_date) # API: the same rate, one GET away GET api.bluegamma.io/v1/fixing ?index=SONIA&valuation_date=YYYY-MM-DD x-api-key: your_api_key
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FAQs
The next scheduled MPC meeting date is shown at the top of this page, alongside the market-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut. It updates automatically after each decision.
Nobody knows for certain, but the market prices it continuously. The probabilities on this page are implied by SONIA overnight index swap forwards: they show the chance of a cut, hold or hike at each upcoming MPC meeting that traders are collectively willing to back with money, refreshed daily on this page.
Overnight index swaps settle on the realised overnight rate, so forward rates between two meeting dates reveal where the market expects the Bank Rate to sit after each decision by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, assuming moves in standard increments, gives the probability of each outcome.
They are the market's live consensus, not a prediction from an economist. They reprice instantly on new data, which makes them the standard reference for hedging and debt-service forecasting, but they are not investment advice and the path can shift materially on a single data release.
The probabilities and the implied Bank Rate path refresh daily from SONIA swap pricing. The timestamps by the table show the exact pricing time.
More GBP rates resources
SONIA Forward Curve
The full market-implied SONIA path, free to view and download.
SONIA Swap Rates
Live GBP swap rates across every tenor, with history.
Compounded SONIA
Daily 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M compounded SONIA in arrears.