European Central Bank Interest Rate Forecast
Market-implied probabilities for the next Governing Council meeting and the deposit facility rate path ahead, derived from €STR overnight index swaps and updated daily.
As of , overnight index swap pricing implies a 71% probability the European Central Bank hikes at the Governing Council meeting, with a market-implied move of +18 bp from the current deposit facility rate of 2.25%.
| Date | Implied deposit facility rate | Implied change vs today |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50% | +25 bps | |
| 2.75% | +50 bps | |
| 2.75% | +50 bps | |
| 2.75% | +50 bps | |
| 2.75% | +50 bps | |
| 3.00% | +75 bps | |
| 3.00% | +75 bps | |
| 3.25% | +100 bps | |
| 3.25% | +100 bps | |
| 3.25% | +100 bps | |
| 3.50% | +125 bps | |
| 3.50% | +125 bps |
Implied rates are derived from ESTR overnight index swap forwards. They reflect market pricing, not a BlueGamma view, and are refreshed daily.
Market-implied deposit facility rate path
Beyond the next meeting
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When Is the Next European Central Bank Governing Council Meeting?
The next scheduled European Central Bank rate decision is on . The market currently prices a move of +18 bp at that Governing Council meeting; the probabilities at the top of this page refresh daily as pricing moves.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
The forecasts on this page are market-implied, not opinion. Overnight index swaps referencing ESTR settle on the realised overnight rate, so the forward rates between two Governing Council meeting dates reveal where the market expects the deposit facility rate to sit after each decision. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, and assuming the European Central Bank moves in standard increments, gives the probability of a hike, hold or cut. The same curve construction powers the forward curves and swap pricing in the BlueGamma app.
The next meeting is one point on the curve.
The probabilities above come from the same curve. The full €STR forward curve shows the complete market-implied path for EUR rates, free to view and download.
See the ESTR forward curveDaily ESTR fixings in Excel & API
If you're rebuilding this table in a spreadsheet every month-end, you don't need a rate, you need a feed. One function, official fixings, straight into your accrual model.
// Excel: any day's ESTR fixing in a cell =BlueGamma.FIXING("ESTR", accrual_date) # API: the same rate, one GET away GET api.bluegamma.io/v1/fixing ?index=ESTR&valuation_date=YYYY-MM-DD x-api-key: your_api_key
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FAQs
The next scheduled Governing Council meeting date is shown at the top of this page, alongside the market-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut. It updates automatically after each decision.
Nobody knows for certain, but the market prices it continuously. The probabilities on this page are implied by €STR overnight index swap forwards: they show the chance of a cut, hold or hike at each upcoming Governing Council meeting that traders are collectively willing to back with money, refreshed daily on this page.
Overnight index swaps settle on the realised overnight rate, so forward rates between two meeting dates reveal where the market expects the deposit facility rate to sit after each decision by the European Central Bank's Governing Council. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, assuming moves in standard increments, gives the probability of each outcome.
They are the market's live consensus, not a prediction from an economist. They reprice instantly on new data, which makes them the standard reference for hedging and debt-service forecasting, but they are not investment advice and the path can shift materially on a single data release.
The probabilities and the implied deposit facility rate path refresh daily from €STR swap pricing. The timestamps by the table show the exact pricing time.
More EUR rates resources
€STR Forward Curve
The full market-implied €STR path, free to view and download.
EURIBOR Swap Rates
Live EUR swap rates across every tenor, with history.
Compounded €STR
Daily compounded €STR over standard interest periods.