Bank of Canada Interest Rate Forecast
Market-implied probabilities for the next rate announcement and the overnight rate path ahead, derived from CORRA overnight index swaps and updated daily.
As of , overnight index swap pricing implies a 91% probability the Bank of Canada holds at the rate announcement, with a market-implied move of +2 bp from the current overnight rate of 2.25%.
| Date | Implied overnight rate | Implied change vs today |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50% | +25 bps | |
| 3.00% | +75 bps | |
| 3.25% | +100 bps | |
| 3.25% | +100 bps | |
| 3.25% | +100 bps | |
| 3.50% | +125 bps | |
| 3.50% | +125 bps | |
| 3.75% | +150 bps | |
| 3.75% | +150 bps | |
| 4.00% | +175 bps | |
| 4.00% | +175 bps | |
| 4.00% | +175 bps |
Implied rates are derived from CORRA overnight index swap forwards. They reflect market pricing, not a BlueGamma view, and are refreshed daily.
Market-implied overnight rate path
Beyond the next meeting
The full CORRA forward curve
- Daily CORRA forward curves, full horizon
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- Swap rates and cap pricing on the same data
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When Is the Next Bank of Canada Rate Announcement?
The next scheduled Bank of Canada rate decision is on . The market currently prices a move of +2 bp at that rate announcement; the probabilities at the top of this page refresh daily as pricing moves.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
The forecasts on this page are market-implied, not opinion. Overnight index swaps referencing CORRA settle on the realised overnight rate, so the forward rates between two rate announcement dates reveal where the market expects the overnight rate to sit after each decision. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, and assuming the Bank of Canada moves in standard increments, gives the probability of a hike, hold or cut. The same curve construction powers the forward curves and swap pricing in the BlueGamma app.
The next meeting is one point on the curve.
The probabilities above come from the same curve. The full CORRA forward curve shows the complete market-implied path for CAD rates, free to view and download.
See the CORRA forward curveDaily CORRA fixings in Excel & API
If you're rebuilding this table in a spreadsheet every month-end, you don't need a rate, you need a feed. One function, official fixings, straight into your accrual model.
// Excel: any day's CORRA fixing in a cell =BlueGamma.FIXING("CORRA", accrual_date) # API: the same rate, one GET away GET api.bluegamma.io/v1/fixing ?index=CORRA&valuation_date=YYYY-MM-DD x-api-key: your_api_key
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FAQs
The next scheduled rate announcement date is shown at the top of this page, alongside the market-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut. It updates automatically after each decision.
Nobody knows for certain, but the market prices it continuously. The probabilities on this page are implied by CORRA overnight index swap forwards: they show the chance of a cut, hold or hike at each upcoming rate announcement that traders are collectively willing to back with money, refreshed daily on this page.
Overnight index swaps settle on the realised overnight rate, so forward rates between two meeting dates reveal where the market expects the overnight rate to sit after each decision by the Bank of Canada's Governing Council. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, assuming moves in standard increments, gives the probability of each outcome.
They are the market's live consensus, not a prediction from an economist. They reprice instantly on new data, which makes them the standard reference for hedging and debt-service forecasting, but they are not investment advice and the path can shift materially on a single data release.
The probabilities and the implied overnight rate path refresh daily from CORRA swap pricing. The timestamps by the table show the exact pricing time.
More CAD rates resources
CORRA Forward Curve
The full market-implied CORRA path, free to view and download.
CAD Swap Rates
Live CAD swap rates across every tenor, with history.
Compounded CORRA
Daily compounded CORRA over standard interest periods.