Bank of Japan Interest Rate Forecast
Market-implied probabilities for the next monetary policy meeting and the policy rate path ahead, derived from TONA overnight index swaps and updated daily.
As of , overnight index swap pricing implies a 100% probability the Bank of Japan holds at the monetary policy meeting, with a market-implied move of +0 bp from the current policy rate of 1.00%.
| Date | Implied policy rate | Implied change vs today |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25% | +25 bps | |
| 1.75% | +75 bps | |
| 2.00% | +100 bps | |
| 2.50% | +150 bps | |
| 2.75% | +175 bps | |
| 3.00% | +200 bps | |
| 3.25% | +225 bps | |
| 3.25% | +225 bps | |
| 3.50% | +250 bps | |
| 3.75% | +275 bps | |
| 3.75% | +275 bps | |
| 4.00% | +300 bps |
Implied rates are derived from TONAR overnight index swap forwards. They reflect market pricing, not a BlueGamma view, and are refreshed daily.
Market-implied policy rate path
Beyond the next meeting
The full TONA forward curve
- Daily TONA forward curves, full horizon
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- Swap rates and cap pricing on the same data
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When Is the Next Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting?
The next scheduled Bank of Japan rate decision is on . The market currently prices a move of +0 bp at that monetary policy meeting; the probabilities at the top of this page refresh daily as pricing moves.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
The forecasts on this page are market-implied, not opinion. Overnight index swaps referencing TONAR settle on the realised overnight rate, so the forward rates between two monetary policy meeting dates reveal where the market expects the policy rate to sit after each decision. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, and assuming the Bank of Japan moves in standard increments, gives the probability of a hike, hold or cut. The same curve construction powers the forward curves and swap pricing in the BlueGamma app.
The next meeting is one point on the curve.
The probabilities above come from the same curve. The full TONA forward curve shows the complete market-implied path for JPY rates, free to view and download.
See the TONAR forward curveDaily TONAR fixings in Excel & API
If you're rebuilding this table in a spreadsheet every month-end, you don't need a rate, you need a feed. One function, official fixings, straight into your accrual model.
// Excel: any day's TONAR fixing in a cell =BlueGamma.FIXING("TONAR", accrual_date) # API: the same rate, one GET away GET api.bluegamma.io/v1/fixing ?index=TONAR&valuation_date=YYYY-MM-DD x-api-key: your_api_key
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FAQs
The next scheduled monetary policy meeting date is shown at the top of this page, alongside the market-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut. It updates automatically after each decision.
Nobody knows for certain, but the market prices it continuously. The probabilities on this page are implied by TONA overnight index swap forwards: they show the chance of a cut, hold or hike at each upcoming monetary policy meeting that traders are collectively willing to back with money, refreshed daily on this page.
Overnight index swaps settle on the realised overnight rate, so forward rates between two meeting dates reveal where the market expects the policy rate to sit after each decision by the Bank of Japan's Policy Board. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, assuming moves in standard increments, gives the probability of each outcome.
They are the market's live consensus, not a prediction from an economist. They reprice instantly on new data, which makes them the standard reference for hedging and debt-service forecasting, but they are not investment advice and the path can shift materially on a single data release.
The probabilities and the implied policy rate path refresh daily from TONA swap pricing. The timestamps by the table show the exact pricing time.
More JPY rates resources
TONA Forward Curve
The full market-implied TONA path, free to view and download.
JPY Swap Rates
Live JPY swap rates across every tenor, with history.