Federal Reserve Interest Rate Forecast
Market-implied probabilities for the next FOMC meeting and the federal funds rate path ahead, derived from SOFR overnight index swaps and updated daily.
As of , overnight index swap pricing implies a 52% probability the Federal Reserve hikes at the FOMC meeting, with a market-implied move of +13 bp from the current federal funds rate of 3.75%.
| Date | Implied federal funds rate | Implied change vs today |
|---|---|---|
| 3.75% | 0 bps | |
| 4.00% | +25 bps | |
| 4.00% | +25 bps | |
| 4.00% | +25 bps | |
| 4.00% | +25 bps | |
| 4.25% | +50 bps | |
| 4.25% | +50 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.50% | +75 bps | |
| 4.75% | +100 bps | |
| 4.75% | +100 bps |
Implied rates are derived from SOFR overnight index swap forwards. They reflect market pricing, not a BlueGamma view, and are refreshed daily.
Market-implied federal funds rate path
Beyond the next meeting
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When Is the Next Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting?
The next scheduled Federal Reserve rate decision is on . The market currently prices a move of +13 bp at that FOMC meeting; the probabilities at the top of this page refresh daily as pricing moves.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
The forecasts on this page are market-implied, not opinion. Overnight index swaps referencing SOFR settle on the realised overnight rate, so the forward rates between two FOMC meeting dates reveal where the market expects the federal funds rate to sit after each decision. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, and assuming the Federal Reserve moves in standard increments, gives the probability of a hike, hold or cut. The same curve construction powers the forward curves and swap pricing in the BlueGamma app.
The next meeting is one point on the curve.
The probabilities above come from the same curve. The full SOFR forward curve shows the complete market-implied path for USD rates, free to view and download.
See the SOFR forward curveDaily SOFR fixings in Excel & API
If you're rebuilding this table in a spreadsheet every month-end, you don't need a rate, you need a feed. One function, official fixings, straight into your accrual model.
// Excel: any day's SOFR fixing in a cell =BlueGamma.FIXING("SOFR", accrual_date) # API: the same rate, one GET away GET api.bluegamma.io/v1/fixing ?index=SOFR&valuation_date=YYYY-MM-DD x-api-key: your_api_key
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FAQs
The next scheduled FOMC meeting date is shown at the top of this page, alongside the market-implied probability of a hike, hold or cut. It updates automatically after each decision.
Nobody knows for certain, but the market prices it continuously. The probabilities on this page are implied by SOFR overnight index swap forwards: they show the chance of a cut, hold or hike at each upcoming FOMC meeting that traders are collectively willing to back with money, refreshed daily on this page.
Overnight index swaps settle on the realised overnight rate, so forward rates between two meeting dates reveal where the market expects the federal funds rate to sit after each decision by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee. Comparing the implied rate either side of a meeting, assuming moves in standard increments, gives the probability of each outcome.
They are the market's live consensus, not a prediction from an economist. They reprice instantly on new data, which makes them the standard reference for hedging and debt-service forecasting, but they are not investment advice and the path can shift materially on a single data release.
The probabilities and the implied federal funds rate path refresh daily from SOFR swap pricing. The timestamps by the table show the exact pricing time.
More USD rates resources
SOFR Forward Curve
The full market-implied SOFR path, free to view and download.
USD Swap Rates
Live USD swap rates across every tenor, with history.
Compounded SOFR
Daily 30, 90 and 180 day compounded SOFR averages.